Vegas, Restaurants and Supply Chain

I don't think COVID-19 virus will directly cause the next leg down in Food Industry. It will be the supply chain disruptions from the food manufacturers to all the way how we sit down in the restaurant to dine out.

Think about it - Say everything goes back to normal next week and govt. tells you to start living your life. How many people do you think will like to go take a chance in a local restaurant and sit next to someone whose whereabouts they don't know. The waiter serving you could have flown from NY 4 days ago, not knowing he was exposed and carrying the virus. Even if local restaurants keep the seating limited and distant - that means their revenue per seat or per sq.feet is going to nose dive. Will they be able to hire people? What impact will it have on the demand for food products/services that the restaurant industry creates. I am just telling you one aspect of the Food Industry.

Las Vegas and other tourist cities around the globe are not going to see the same foot traffic right away. Casinos, Sports bars, hotel rooms, airlines, sport arenas, retail malls, small businesses like salons and gyms will not see the same number of customers return in a short amount of time.

The logistic companies will have to ramp up safety measures and handling of everything. That means it will cause inefficiency in the distribution and handling channel. That will lead to more cost. More cost means less profits and if that cost is transferred to the consumer - that will mean less buying power for them. The whole cycle is going to be disturbed.

They say market is forward looking, and discounts what is about to happen in the current stock price. I personally think such issues are not reflected in the market and the current stock prices are a mismatch from what is about to hit the globe.

All the Fed pumping, and easing of monetary policy will work only in the short-term. Eventually for capitalism to survive - someone will have to take the fall. And when that happens, market will correct.

However, till that time - enjoy the ride and trade the charts.

No need to fight the tape.

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